Seminar notes: Failed states
Guinea
Africa is a Country: https://africasacountry.com/2021/09/alpha-and-omega
Ethiopia
Africa is a country: https://africasacountry.com/2020/12/the-ethiopian-model
Failed states
What do mainstream political scientists say?
Laura Brooks
A different view.
The military in politics
Latin America
The Middle East
Turkey
Lebanon
https://www.transparency.org/country
Too positive a view of how the state functions — models that work really well
- obvious that this is not the case — a lot of badly functioning states
This is what we should talk about today
- military dictatorships
- kleptocracies
- autocratic regimes
- patrimonial states
This a European view of the rest of the world — we have ideal forms of states at home, but when we are looking at the rest of the world, we see problems
- “there are no states that work as well as ours!”
Deal with a problem: the fact that we haven’t talked much about states outside of Europe — this is a very Eurocentric course
- We don’t like Eurocentric courses at Ibn Haldun — and for good reason
- the world was not created by Europeans — or in Europe’s image — there are many other traditions
- however, the state — understood as a sovereign entity — is very much a European invention — it makes sense to talk about the European tradition
This was also the tradition that was exported to the rest of the world — as a result of colonialism
- I want to talk more about that next week
Problematic to only discuss non-European states as problems — Europe becomes the standard by which everything else is judged
- still, it is important to face this issue
- is it true that states outside of Europe work badly, and if so, why?
Very much can be said about this — and there are many different things going on — but we will talk about the concept of “patromonialism” — about “the resource curse” and about “Putin’s kleptocracy”
Patrimonialism
The question of political legitimacy
- “legitimacy” as a question of leges — “laws”
We discussed this briefly before
- a legitimate teacher — a legitimate father
By an authority — but the authority must itself be recognized as legitimate
- recognition as crucial
Weber on sources of legitimacy
- ask what the sources of someone’s authority are
Charismatic authority:
- divinely-originating “gift” that demonstrated the authority of God within the early leaders of the Church
Rational-bureaucratic:
- rule through laws and bureaucracy
Patrimonial authority:
- traditional authority — based on the father — family and networks
- legitimacy through tradition
- The ability to gather people around you — to create networks of personal loyalty by means of friendship, family, and the distribution of goods
- But there is a set of mutual obligations here, not necessarily exploitation
How this concept is used by Western scholars
- an obvious evolution here — rational-bureaucratic as the most advanced form
- from status to rule — the state becomes machine-like, depersonalized
Compare the constant complaint that Africa etc is “tribal” — how no effective state is possible
- Patron-client networks
- One of the causes of corruption — handing out money to friends and one’s own tribe
The problem with Africa is that it is too “tribal”
The case of Botswana
source: tradingeconomics.com
Botswana as a
- “beefocracy”
- the cattle organized as in traditional nomadic societies — there were rich men who owned many animals
- but everyone was dependent on everyone else
- leaders who listened
- the ability to run away
- something akin to a kurultai
Conclusions: illustrates the difference between types and authority and types of regimes:
- patrimonial authority can go together with democracy, and with economic growth
- and legal-bureaucratic can go together with dictatorship — the Nazis etc, or the Soviet Union
Botswana and the resource curse:
- Seems more like Norway — resources are OK as long as they are combined with strong traditional institutions
The resource curse
- What is this? Why is it a “curse”?
Economic consequences
- very rich but low economic development
- cf. Spain getting gold and silver from the Americas
Countries without natural resources often do much better
- Japan, Singapore, Ethiopia
How can the economic consequences be explained?
- little economic spill-over — everything is brought in from outside — next to no connection to the local economy
- little technological spill-over — local people receive no training — there are no spin-off companies
Political consequences
- Bad news for democracy
The idea of “rent”
- gaining more from a market transaction than you would if there was a free market
- the cost of the market not functioning well — monopolies, oligopolies — you can set your own price
- some reason why the market doesn’t work — usually political
- but also a nature of the good — if you have a monopoly …
- “rent-seeking” — people who are looking for ways to protect themselves from the market
Causes:
- Political pressure is bought off — they are spending heavily to avoid demands from the people
- People aren’t paying taxes and that means that they can make no demands for representation — this is historically an important cause of democratic pressure
- means they can ignore the traditional middle-class — also an important source of political pressure
- No social groups form — no civil society
- Enough resources to repress the people — why do all oil regimes have such large military?
- Does not lead to the kind of modernization of society that is required for democracy? Traditional, pre-modern, values.
Why rent are possible:
- limited market — few players
- different qualities of oil and very different costs associated with the extraction
- as a result the market does not work very well
Price fluctuations:
- Inelasticity of both supply and demand
- It is very difficult to react to changes in price — the market cannot clear
- difficult to suddenly come up with more oil — if production already is at the limit
- difficult to cut the demand for oil in relation to higher prices
The history of the petroleum industry:
- The “Seven Sisters” — who were they?
- Nationalizations in the 1970s
- now all countries own their own oil — except the US
- OPEC
Very opaque book keeping
- keep it outside of the state budget
- money that very easily goes into someone’s pockets
But OK for the West — Norway and Britain, etc.
- Why is this?
Democracy in the Muslim world?
Any comments on the role of the military in politics?
- There was no reading on this, apologies …
Addition: more on primary sources
- reality and someone standing between us and reality
How a secondary source can be turned into a primary source
- discussions about China vs. China itself
Adventures in primary sources
- Cracking the Mayan code
- The MauMau rebellion